STARKVILLE — Mississippi State is entering crunch time.
Sitting at 2-6 and with roughly seven bowl spots up for grabs in the Southeastern Conference, it remains to be seen whether the Bulldogs would earn a postseason berth with just two wins on their ledger. Facing an Auburn team that’s hardly been a world beater in 2020, MSU would do plenty to aid its case for a bowl game with a win Saturday in Starkville.
Here are three matchups to watch:
Auburn quarterback Bo Nix vs. Mississippi State secondary
*Insert comments about the MSU secondary being banged up*
OK, I’ll dive into more than that, but it’s no secret at this point that the MSU secondary is reeling. In the Bulldogs’ last time out, we saw third-string defensive back Landon Guidry twice burned for long touchdowns as Ole Miss scored just enough to outpace MSU in Oxford two weeks ago. To Guidry’s credit, he wrote a lengthy apology on Twitter after the game owning his mistakes. That said, it doesn’t change the fact the Bulldogs are shorthanded on the back end.
Enter Nix.
A five-star recruit and a prodigal son on The Plains, Nix hasn’t exactly been the picture of efficiency this fall. While Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn should lean on the run game more than the passing game Saturday, his starting signal-caller is averaging a meager 222 yards per game through the air — the sixth-best mark in the SEC, though that’s buoyed more by the lacking quarterback play in the league this year.
Over its past three games, MSU has allowed at least 336 yards in each contest, while all three of Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and No. 12 Georgia have completed at least 67.4 percent of their passes. By comparison, Nix enters Saturday’s game completing just 61.5 percent of his throws this season.
Auburn’s three-headed receiver trio of Seth Williams, Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove is among the conference’s best contingents despite their quarterback’s numbers. If Nix can find his receivers ever-so-slightly more accurately, the Tigers can find holes in an otherwise stout MSU defense.
Mississippi State offensive line vs. Auburn pass rush
MSU has looked like a different team since it narrowly missed upsetting Georgia in Athens three weeks ago. The root of that change? The offensive line.
Through eight games, the offensive line has been a revolving door with players being thrust into positions they’ve never played before (i.e. Brandon Cunningham at tackle) or taking over in starting roles despite minimal previous experience (Hello, Cole Smith at center). However, the continuity issues have seemed to iron themselves out of late.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Bulldogs’ front turned in its second-best pass blocking grade of the year against Ole Miss, while MSU’s passing grade — 75.9 — was the best mark of the entire season.
As for Auburn, the Tigers head into Saturday with the third worst pass rush grade of any SEC team this year according to PFF. Grades aside, Malzahn’s bunch does sit tied for fourth in the conference with 19 sacks on the year.
MSU has looked dangerous when freshman quarterback Will Rogers has been given time to throw. If the Bulldogs have a chance at springing an upset Saturday, it will have to keep Rogers upright and allow the offense to develop downfield.
Gus Malzahn vs. the chopping block
OK, this isn’t exactly MSU-centric, but it bears mention.
As is common custom around this time, we’ve entered the part of the year in which Auburn fans begin calculating Malzahn’s buyout. The Tigers have underachieved in a down-SEC this year, while Nix hasn’t progressed nearly enough to merit his five-star rating coming out of high school.
MSU has taken its lumps this fall, but, as mentioned, stands to boost its postseason hopes tremendously with a win or two over the final weeks of the season. The Bulldogs have looked revitalized of late and had ample chances to win against Ole Miss and Georgia. If Mike Leach is looking for a chance to salvage his first season in Starkville while also sending another head coach packing in the process, this would likely be his chance.
Now, can I interest anyone in Hugh Freeze’s return to the SEC by way of The Plains?
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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