By the time you read this, Mississippians may have lost the right to have an abortion.
According to the U.S. Supreme Court’s calendar, today and Friday are set aside for announcing decisions. In a crowded docket, all eyes will turn to the court’s ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Heath Organization, which asks the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court’s ruling that Mississippi’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy is unconstitutional.
The issue goes far beyond at what point a woman can legally have an abortion to the larger issue of whether the right to an abortion in protected under the U.S. Constitution.
A leaked draft opinion last month indicates that the Court will not only rule that Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban is legal, but overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that said Americans have a constitutional right to an abortion in all U.S. states and territories. The draft opinion indicates the court believes abortion rights should be determined by individual states — a “state’s rights” argument that harkens back to the days of the segregation movement of the 1950s and 1960s.
Mississippi is among 13 state that have “trigger laws” that make abortion illegal in the state if and when Roe v. Wade is overturned.
I’m hard-pressed to recall if there has ever been a less popular ruling. Historically, even rulings that we recognize today as abhorrent — Dred Scott, Plessy vs. Ferguson — had broad support at the time of the court’s decision.
Yet poll after poll shows that Americans are solidly in favor of abortion rights. The latest poll, released on Wednesday, shows that by more than double (61 percent to 28 percent) those surveyed oppose overturning Roe v. Wade.
Even in reliably conservative Mississippi, overturning Roe v. Wade may not be as popular a decision as you might think. Eleven years ago, Mississippi voters overwhelmingly defeated a “personhood” ballot initiative that was an end-run around Roe. v. Wade. Voters rejected the amendment to the state constitution by a 58-percent to 41-percent margin. It’s unlikely that that sentiment supporting abortion rights has decreased appreciably in so short of time.
Public opinion about abortion is not like asking Americans whether they prefer mustard or mayonnaise on sandwiches. There, you might have a preference, but it’s not something you’re going to shout from the rooftops.
Abortion is something people are passionate about. Both camps have made up their minds.
What interests me is how this will all play out.
I suspect it will be a disaster. After all, once a right has been established, it’s very difficult to take it away (unless you’re Black, of course).
The closest parallel that may give us an insight into post-Roe America is Prohibition. In 1920, after a long campaign by temperance organizations across the nation, the states ratified the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, banning the production, importation, transportation, and sale of alcohol.
The intent of the amendment was to protect the public from the negative effects of alcohol, but in reality, it did little to achieve that goal. Drinking Americans, for the large part, didn’t meekly comply but instead continued to consume alcohol produced, imported, transported and sold through the black market. Prohibition marked the rise of the mafia era in the United States.
By 1933, Americans were convinced Prohibition had been a terrible mistake. The unintended consequences proved far worse than the benefits it was supposed to deliver. In The 21st amendment was ratified in December of that year, overturning the 18th Amendment. Happy Days Are Here Again, Americans sang.
I believe that what was true of Prohibition will be true of Post-Roe America. Women will still have abortions regardless of whether it is legal or not. As it was with Prohibition, the negative consequences are likely to far outweigh whatever benefits anti-abortion advocates imagine.
As it was with the Temperance Movement, which labored for decades to achieve Prohibition, abortion-rights advocates should be prepared for a long, long fight.
Their only advantage is that a solid majority of Americans — those who aren’t Supreme Court justices, at any rate — support abortion rights
In the meantime, abortion will be illegal and dangerous in many states, including Mississippi.
Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected]
