Asked during Tuesday’s Rotary Club of Columbus meeting how likely a second wave of COVID-19 is to hit the U.S., Dr. Robert Buckley had a caveat for his audience: The first onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic isn’t over just yet.
“We may have blunted the curve, but I’m not so sure that we have stopped the wave yet,” said the pediatrics specialist at Allegro Family Clinic, one of six doctors who made up a panel of Columbus physicians at Tuesday’s Zoom meeting.
According to the Mississippi State Department of Health, COVID-19 case numbers topped 20,000 in the state as of Monday evening, and 915 Mississippians have died from a pandemic that shows no signs of slowing down.
It’s why Buckley and his fellow doctors cautioned Rotary members that coexisting with the virus will likely take longer than they might expect.
“I think we are going to have to live with COVID, and I think we’re going to have to learn how to mitigate it,” Buckley said.
Even a vaccine for the virus won’t necessarily mean a definite end to the pandemic, Buckley said. He referenced the flu vaccine, which while effective does not put an end to flu deaths totaling between 12,000 to 61,000 per year in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Dr. Richard Heard of Gastroenterology Associates said the continued high numbers of confirmed cases is a result of the reopening of Mississippi’s economy by Gov. Tate Reeves and local governments statewide — a move he said was ultimately necessary.
“As we loosen up and have to go back to our lives, we’re going to see some upswing,” Heard said. “I hope it doesn’t get as bad as it has gotten in some other places.”
This week, Florida, Texas and Arizona have announced new daily records for COVID-19 cases, and the disease is on the rise in Oklahoma, Louisiana and other states.
Age, underlying conditions remain key factors
Buckley — who said a rise in case numbers in Mississippi was inevitable because of the reopening and the nationwide protests against police brutality, systemic racism and the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery — said school “will be an issue” this fall.
While children are less susceptible to COVID-19 — no one under 18 has died from the virus in Mississippi, Buckley said — the risk of unknowingly passing on the virus to family members at higher risk is significant.
“Now we know they need to be tested because they are going to bring it home and give it to their parents or their grandparents,” Buckley said.
Dr. James Woodard of Allegro said age is a key determinant of how seriously the virus will affect someone.
“The older the patient, the longer it takes to become disease free,” Woodard said.
“Comorbidities” — underlying health conditions — that leave people more vulnerable to the effects of the virus include cardiovascular disease, lung disease and diabetes, nephrologist Jason Dunn said.
All 15 patients with COVID-19 at Baptist Memorial Hospital-Golden Triangle’s critical care unit as of Tuesday are of an advanced age and have underlying conditions, though all are in stable condition and expected to make a full recovery.
“COVID can be a very vicious, deadly virus in a small subset of patients, and that’s typically patients who are very old or patients who have underlying comorbidities,” Dunn said.
Cardiologist John King said patients experiencing heart problems are still being too careful to seek medical help, refusing to be seen for fear of being exposed to a virus that could kill them.
“Heart attack numbers are down, and that can only be because they’re happening at home,” King said. “People are not getting care in a timely manner.”
During Tuesday’s panel, King implored patients to come in “as if there were no pandemic” to receive that critical care on time before symptoms worsen.
Masks and the outdoors
Tuesday’s panel also offered advice on how to “live with” COVID-19, as Buckley suggested must be done.
OB/GYN Mike Turner with Physicians and Surgeons in Columbus and Amory recommended wearing a face mask in public — but not just any mask.
“If you’re gonna wear a mask, make sure it’s a mask that’s actually helpful,” Turner said.
N95 respirators, surgical masks and cloth masks outfitted with a vacuum filter fit that description, Turner said.
He also clarified masks aren’t designed to protect the wearer from contracting the disease. Rather, they are to keep the wearer from spreading it.
King said that one way to do that — in addition to wearing a mask — is to avoid prolonged contact in an enclosed space. It typically takes more than one particle of the virus to infect someone, he said, and the longer the time frame and the closer the contact, the higher the likelihood of infection.
King said the risk of transmission is lower outdoors, where air currents and the sun’s ultraviolet rays can work to mitigate the virus. But he didn’t rule out indoor gatherings altogether.
“Do I think that an hourlong church service in a church is a bad idea? Probably not,” King said. “It’s hard to say. There’s just so many unknowns.”
While those unknowns remain plentiful, the time must come for a decision about big gatherings — including sporting events — set to start in a few months. Dunn offered a possible timeline for such a choice to be made.
“As far as larger gatherings in the fall, I think we’re still probably another month or so away from seeing eventually how that’s going to go,” Dunn said.
Expansion in testing capability
Allegro Executive Director Amy Bogue, who facilitated the panel, told The Dispatch after the meeting that things have begun to return to normal at her clinics.
Across the four locations, Allegro has now run 551 tests for COVID-19. Patients with mild to moderate cases of the virus are treated there, while those with severe symptoms are sent to Baptist.
The increased testing capacity allows Allegro to be able to test people with less severe symptoms or even those not showing symptoms at all.
“A lot of the younger people tend to be asymptomatic and test positive,” Bogue said. “The risk is them bringing it to those elderly patients with comorbidities. I think we need to test anybody who needs it.”
Allegro is also up to 84 tests for COVID-19 antibodies, which can show if someone has already been infected with the virus despite not knowing it.
The test can be an effective one, though Heard cautioned that the medical community is unsure if antibodies confer immunity and, if so, how long it lasts.
“Really, until we have some more time to have more recovered patients and see how they do, we won’t totally know,” Heard said.
Still, it’s a good sign for Bogue and Allegro, who have seen an uptick in other aspects of operation as well.
Personal protective equipment (PPE) hasn’t been as hard to come by, as the clinic’s several vendors have kept supplies flowing.
“It’s a lot easier to get now than it was a month ago,” Bogue said. “It’s not as difficult as it was.”
Additionally, more patients have come in to refill their medications or undergo lab work to adjust their prescriptions.
“We’re not at 100 percent, but people are getting more comfortable coming in and taking care of their needs,” Bogue said.
Overall, though the threat of the pandemic has yet to subside, things are getting better.
“We’re slowly getting back to the normal numbers, and that’s a good thing,” Bogue said.
Theo DeRosa reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @Theo_DeRosa.
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