STARKVILLE — If bye weeks are a time to address a team’s own problems before focusing all attention on upcoming opponents, the Mississippi State football team had more than enough to address — as evidenced by losses of 28 and 39 points going into that off week.
Red zone offense could have been viewed as one of those problems. At the time, MSU was scoring touchdowns on 54 percent of its red zone trips, a rate ranking in the bottom third nationally and among the worst in the Southeastern Conference.
Since then, MSU has gone to the red zone 13 times with 11 touchdowns to show for it.
MSU (6-2, 3-2 SEC) and its improved red zone offense take on UMass (2-6), ranked 89th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, 11 a.m. Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium. MSU coach Dan Mullen sees the difference between MSU’s red zone offense before and after the bye week as a product of qualitative factors.
“I think, one, there’s a big execution part to it,” Mullen said Wednesday on the SEC teleconference. “I think our guys are growing a little bit: we had some younger guys in the season that now have some experience, have played and have a better understanding of what you have to do down there.
“As coaches, hopefully we’ve done a little better job of seeing what kind of team we have and what our guys do well to make sure we’re putting them in a position to be successful in the red zone.”
Numbers from MSU’s red zone trips support the latter more than the former. A look at MSU’s red zone playcalling choices over the course of the season suggest, in recent week, MSU has turned to a run-based attack that’s produced better results.
In the first five games of the season, MSU ran on 59 percent of red zone plays; in its last three, that’s gone up to 79 percent. Yards per carry may not be the best metric to measure red zone rushing effectiveness given the small field to work with, but if it were, it would be kind to MSU: the Bulldogs’ primary ball carriers, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Aeris Williams, are averaging 4.07 yards per red zone carry in their last three games compared to 3 yards per carry in the first five.
If MSU did intentionally stray away from passing in the red zone, the Auburn and Georgia games gave it good reason to. MSU’s red zone pass rate jumped to a season high 45 percent in those two games; it resulted in a combined 1-for-9 passing line and just one touchdown over six red zone trips.
MSU has done more than turn its attention to the run game in the red zone; it’s turned to Williams in particular.
Williams’ nine red zone carries over the first five games amounted to 14.5 percent of MSU’s red zone plays in that span and just 34.6 percent of MSU’s red zone runs; in the last three games, Williams runs have accounted for 47.3 percent of MSU’s red zone plays and he has turned into the feature ball carrier, taking 60 percent of MSU’s red zone runs. The usage has turned him into an effective setup tool: twice against Kentucky and once against Texas A&M, consecutive Williams carries led to a touchdown for a teammate on the ensuing play.
Other than the increasing rushing attempts, nearly everything else about MSU’s red zone offense has been the same. MSU averaged 4.8 trips there per game in its first five games and 4.3 in its last three; its average field position on first play per trip to red zone has even been comparable, from the 13-yard line in the first five games to somewhere between the 15- and 16-yard line in the last three. MSU increasing its rushing attempts per red zone trip seems to be the only change from below average success to something that would be considered elite over the course of an entire season.
Mullen said MSU didn’t place more importance on red zone offense over the bye week than it does at any other time: “It’s always a massive emphasis within our program.”
That emphasis means a Wednesday with a ton of red zone practice and a period to revisit any mistakes in the Thursday practice, Fitzgerald said. In that sense, there has been no red zone overhaul.
“We have a core set of run plays and a core set of pass plays that go in every game plan every week,” Fitzgerald said, adding there are adjustments made for each opponent.
Of late, that’s meant more running — and more touchdowns.
Follow Dispatch sports writer Brett Hudson on Twitter, @Brett_Hudson
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