The Mississippi State women’s basketball team faces its biggest stretch of the season in the next seven days.
At 19-2 and 4-2 in the Southeastern Conference, MSU slipped three spots to No. 18 in this week’s The Associated Press Top 25. The USA Today Top 25, which is voted on by the coaches, comes out today. MSU was ranked No. 18 in that poll last week and likely will slip a few spots following a 71-69 double-overtime loss to LSU on Thursday.
MSU’s standing in each poll will fluctuate the rest of the season as teams continue to knock each other off in the rough-and-tumble SEC. But MSU can go a long way to solidifying its standing in the NCAA tournament this week with victories at 8 p.m. Thursday at Ole Miss (14-5, 4-2) and at 8 p.m. Monday at Auburn (9-9, 0-5). Two victories will help MSU eclipse its SEC total from last season and give it the most league wins in one season since it won nine in 2009-10. If you recall, that season turned out to be the best in program history, as the Bulldogs advanced to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament for the first time.
There’s no telling if MSU will come together at the right time like that squad led by Alexis Rack, Chanel Mokango, and Armelie Lumanu did. After all, MSU had to rally in the final five minutes to beat Middle Tennessee State 68-64 in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. MSU then played one of its most complete games in recent memory in an 87-67 upset of No. 8 Ohio State. It nearly took another step before losing 74-71 to No. 10 Florida State in Dayton, Ohio.
No one knows if or where MSU will go dancing this season. Barring an unforeseen collapse, MSU figures to win seven SEC games, which should secure it a spot in the NCAA tournament. But MSU coach Vic Schaefer and his players want more. That’s why Schaefer talked in the preseason about how this year’s team was going to embrace the expectations and use them as motivation.
Now is the time for the Bulldogs to put that talk into action.
Victories against Ole Miss and Auburn would put MSU at 6-2 halfway through the SEC schedule. Considering MSU has games at No. 5 Tennessee, vs. No. 10 Texas A&M, at No. 14 Kentucky, and at No. 1 South Carolina in the second part of its league schedule, the path to matching the 2002-03 team’s program-record 10 SEC wins will be even tougher.
Statistics indicate that road will be challenging regardless of the opponent. The SEC leads all Power 5 leagues (Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 10 Conference, Big 12 Conference, and Pacific-12 Conference) with seven teams scoring less than 60 points per game and 10 teams shooting less than 40 percent from the field. The Pac-12 and the Big 12 have two teams scoring less than 60 ppg., while the Big 10 has one and the ACC has non. The Pac-12 and the ACC have three teams shooting less than 40 percent from the field, while the Big 10 has two and the Big 12 has one.
Those figures provide ample context for you to understand what Schaefer means when he refers to SEC games as “bloodbaths.”
But the Bulldogs are going to have to find a way through the quagmire of physical and foul-plagued games. They also are going to have to do a better job of defending teams that are going to spread the floor and try to create off the dribble. LSU had success against MSU because of its size in the backcourt. The Tigers attacked the basket and put pressure on the Bulldogs to defend high-screen action near the top of the key. Ole Miss likely will present a similar challenge. The Rebels don’t have the Tigers’ size and the physical strength at guard, but they do have plenty of athleticism and energy, so expect them to try to push the Bulldogs back on their heels, and then keep them there with plenty of defensive pressure.
MSU should expect both challenges. In a league where most teams have size, strength, and depth, MSU figures to see plenty of zone defenses and teams that will try to pack the paint and prevent senior center Martha Alwal, a first-team preseason All-SEC pick, from getting involved. MSU needs Alwal to return to the form she showed last season when she averaged 14.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and earned first-team All-SEC honors.
MSU also needs to learn from its mistakes. Coaches often say that freshmen no longer are first-year players once they get this deep into a season. They have watched plenty of film and practiced enough in their first seasons to know old tricks won’t work and they have to be able to adjust. The Bulldogs can’t continue to get beat down court. The Bulldogs can’t continue to settle for outside shots, even if they are third in the SEC in scoring at 64.3 ppg. After all, MSU is 10th in the SEC in field goal percentage (35.6 percent) and has shot less than 40 percent in five of its six SEC games.
MSU can’t expect good results if those numbers remain the same. Maybe that’s why ESPN’s Charlie Creme dropped MSU to a projected No. 5 seed in his latest Bracketology for the NCAA tournament on espn.com. In a previous Bracketology, Creme listed MSU as a No. 4 seed and as a host to a four-team pod for the first and second rounds. In his latest version, Creme said of MSU, “the Bulldogs might be the deepest team in the SEC, but they have stumbled a bit early in league play.”
Granted, MSU didn’t play well in a 78-62 loss at Vanderbilt. It also didn’t play one of its best games against LSU, but it had plenty of opportunities to win on an evening in which it shot only 34.5 percent from the field and committed 24 turnovers. If a loss to LSU is considered part of MSU’s “stumble,” Kentucky encountered a similar misstep Sunday in an 84-79 loss at LSU. With junior guard Danielle Ballard, the Tigers are a threat to finish in the top four in the league and to earn a bye until the third day of the SEC tournament, which will be March 4-8 in Little Rock, Arkansas.
You can argue it’s too early to be thinking that far ahead. But MSU would be better served to tackle the expectations as soon as possible. It has to realize it has thrust itself into the national conversation and that it has to live up to that standard. It also has to realize nothing is going to come easily in the SEC. That’s why the Bulldogs need to embrace the final two-plus months of the marathon and realize they can make something special happen. In a season that has seen the program attract back-to-back-crowds of 4,500 at Humphrey Coliseum for the first time, MSU can’t afford to settle for a good season. It has to do everything it can so that the 2014-15 season lives up to those expectations. Thursday would be a perfect time to start.
Adam Minichino is sports editor at The Dispatch. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @ctsportseditor.
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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