STARKVILLE — The numbers reflect the progress.
In five key statistical categories — scoring, scoring defense, shooting percentage, rebounding margin, and assist-to-turnover ratio — the Mississippi State women’s basketball team is significantly better than it was through 13 games last season.
Now it is time for MSU to translate those statistics into improvement in the Southeastern Conference.
MSU (12-1) will have one more non-conference opportunity to bolster its confidence and to improve those numbers at 7 p.m. Monday when it plays host to Mississippi Valley State University at Humphrey Coliseum. WKBB-FM 100.9 will broadcast the game live. As part of Fan Appreciation Night, all fans will be admitted to the game free.
“I feel good about being 12-1,” MSU coach Vic Schaefer said. “I am excited about how we have played in a majority of those games. I am excited about the success we have had and the playing time we have been able to give our young kids.”
With a victory, MSU can match its win total from the 2012-13 season, when it finished 13-17 in Schaefer’s first season as head coach at the school. A year ago, MSU’s strong final two months — in which it upset No. 11 Georgia at home — allowed it to entertain thoughts of playing in a postseason tournament. Unfortunately, a loss to Auburn in the regular-season finale and a loss to Alabama in the Southeastern Conference tournament ended those hopes.
This season, MSU likely will play in a postseason tournament even if it duplicates its 5-11 SEC mark from 2012-13. It enters the game against MVSU with a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) of 59 and a Strength of Schedule (SOC) of 225. Both numbers, which the NCAA tournament selection committee uses to pick its at-large teams, will improve given the strength of the competition MSU will face once it opens SEC play. That 16-game schedule will begin at 6 p.m. Thursday when MSU travels to Gainesville, Fla., to face Florida.
The game against Florida begins a pivotal three-game stretch to open the SEC season that feature games against Auburn and Arkansas. MSU, Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas likely will be bunched together with Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and Missouri below a group that should include Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, and Georgia at the top of the league.
A strong start to the SEC season would help MSU make its postseason dreams a reality. A slow start could be damaging even though MSU will face many of the conference’s top teams (Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky) at home.
“I can’t pay attention to RPI and Strength of Schedule today,” Schaefer said. “When you make a schedule, you’re going off of last year’s RPI, and it varies from year to year. As long as you keep winning, I know that helps your RPI. Losing doesn’t help you.”
MSU’s aggressiveness is another reason it is positioned to play in a postseason tournament. The Bulldogs lead the nation in free throws made (302) and free throws attempted (416). Their free throw shooting percentage of 72.6 percent is 82nd in the country, but Schaefer likes his team’s mind-set on the offensive end. You could argue it is a carry-over from the defensive end, where MSU is 13th in the nation in scoring defense (54.8 points per game) and 13th in the nation in steals (12.1 per game). Those two categories are a prime reason why MSU is 12th in the country in scoring margin (24.3 ppg.).
MSU also has taken better care of the basketball thanks in large part to the play of senior point guard Katia May and junior point guard Jerica James. Both players — May (83 assists, 29 turnovers) and James (38, 19) — have 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratios.
“When you have a junior and a senior point guard, I think your assist-to-turnover ratio should be good,” Schaefer said. “You ought to be taking care of the basketball at that position.”
As a team, MSU has 211 assists and 196 turnovers, is shooting 42.5 percent from the field, and is averaging 79.1 ppg. At this point last season, MSU had 162 assists and 262 turnovers, was shooting 38.3 percent from the field, and was averaging 62.0 ppg.
The Bulldogs’ rebounding edge this season (43.5-35.7) has improved from a year ago when they only had a slight edge (40.8-38.4) on opponents.
Juniors Martha Alwal (16.6 ppg., 9.2 rebounds per game) and Kendra Grant (14.0, 3.3) are leading the team in scoring. Freshman Dominique Dillingham is third on the team in scoring (10.5 ppg.) and second on the team in steals (28) to junior college transfer Savannah Carter (38).
As much as Schaefer is encouraged and is apt to highlight all of those numbers, he has tempered his enthusiasm on multiple occasions by saying “the monster,” in reference to the 16-game SEC schedule, is around the corner.
Schaefer said he would like his freshmen to take better care of the basketball. He said he has been pleased with May and James and with the contributions of Carter and freshmen Breanna Richardson, Ketara Chapel, and Dillingham.
The NCAA still hasn’t cleared Chinwe Okorie, the team’s fifth freshman, to play in games. The 6-foot-5 center from Nigeria by way of Stoneleigh-Burnham (Mass.) School has been practicing with the team, and Schaefer said she has provided a defensive presence that is making the Bulldogs work.
Schaefer said he isn’t sure if or when the NCAA will declare Okorie eligible. He said he is weighing the benefits of using Okorie for 16-20 games this season or redshirting her and saving her a season of eligibility so she will have four years remaining.
Still, Schaefer said the freshmen have come in and given the Bulldogs quality depth, something they didn’t have last season. Richardson and Chapel have combined to average 12.7 points and 9.1 rebounds a game.
“We have more bullets, No. 1,” Schaefer said. “We are playing 10 kids. All 10 play every game, and seven of them are playing 20-plus minutes, so it is quite a bit different (than last season). I like our skill set. I think the kids who came back improved and the kids we recruited have the skill set we believe is necessary to be competitive, and I think the stats show that.”
The stats also show MSU has fared much better in tournaments. Last season, MSU lost to Winthrop, UC-Santa Barbara, and Central Florida in the Hardwood Tournament of Hope in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. This season, MSU defeated Grand Canyon and James Madison before losing to Middle Tennessee State in the Gulf Coast Showcase in Naples, Fla. RealTime RPI labeled the victories against Grand Canyon and James Madison “quality” wins based on those teams’ RPIs through Dec. 25.
“If you are trying to gauge where we were this time last year to where we are now and who we’re playing, I think JMU is better than any of the three teams we played in that preseason tournament,” Schaefer said. “Grand Canyon could be right up there with Winthrop and Central Florida. I am pleased with where we are, who we have beaten, how we have beaten teams. Middle is going to be good. I think Southern Miss is going to win 20 games and is going to be a whole lot better than where they were picked in their league (Conference USA) simply because they added a couple of pieces that made their team better.”
Follow Dispatch sports editor Adam Minichino on Twitter @ctsportseditor.
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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