OXFORD — Forget about Santa Claus.
You may be reading this before he visits. You may be reading this after he has come and gone. You may even be reading this while the elderly elf is in the other room. No matter. Mr. Claus — or more specifically the need for him to make his list and check it twice — is obsolete.
Why?
Amazon.com is seeking a U.S. patent to deliver what you want delivered … even before you order it.
The Wall Street Journal reported the story earlier this year.
The Internet one-stop-shopping site (which also sells how-to-get-a-patent kits) goes to extremes to know what its customers want. The patent being sought would protect its methods of ascertaining this information plus how it “stages” or pre-ships products to be delivered almost as quickly as customers press the “submit order” button.
It’s math.
We’re talking high-level math coupled with technology.
And it works.
According to The Wall Street Journal, “In deciding what to ship, Amazon said it may consider previous orders, product searches, wish lists, shopping-cart contents, returns and even how long an Internet user’s cursor hovers over an item.”
That’s right, Mr. Duck Hunter.
Hover the arrow on your screen over those Browning waders for more than three seconds on two consecutive days and Amazon will send a pair to a distribution center near you. Same if you eyeball a plastic tea tumbler just like Uncle Si’s on Duck Dynasty. And especially if within the past couple of days you ordered “How to Hunt for Waterfowl.” The computer is clicking and whirring. They got you. They know what you want.
So what’s the rush? Most items ordered for home or office delivery come within two or three days at most, anyway. What’s to be gained by anticipating a purchase?
The particular problem for Amazon, the article says, is shoppers who view products online and then go to local retailers to make their purchases. Online sellers consider these “lost customers” and resent serving as a mere catalog. They want to seal the deal.
So Amazon seeks to refine this technology and either license it to others or keep others from using it. If successful, the company will have an edge in an increasingly competitive online and retail marketplace. They will take “wait” out of the picture, or at least reduce it sharply.
How much savvy does it take to achieve such sophistication? To know what a customer is likely to buy before the customer starts shopping?
Not much.
When I was a child, Frederick’s Shoe Store is where my siblings and I were shod for back-to-school. Routinely. The owners knew how many kids in our family and when school started. They also were wise enough to distribute punch cards for a free pair of shoes after every 10th pair — a big help for larger families like ours.
What I’m saying is that good merchants have always known what to have in stock and how to build repeat business.
What’s different is the amount of information that can now be gathered and stored and analyzed and compared to other data. Constantly. Because I have a frequent shopper card that logs all my grocery purchases, a computer operator somewhere could tell you within an ounce or two how much milk is in my refrigerator and predict when I will buy another half-gallon.
Now some people are bothered by data-mining what they consider personal information. Others understand there’s a trade-off. The more a seller knows about you, the more likely your preferences will be met.
Merchants gain efficiencies, too. For instance, a convenience store operator told me he doesn’t restock any item that doesn’t sell out in 30 days. That way customers get what they want most and he doesn’t tie up money in inventory that’s not selling.
Computers, of course, are what make all this possible.
If a 33-year-old single male school teacher in Florida bought John Grisham’s last two novels before ordering the newest one, then there’s a better-than-even chance that a 33-year-old single male school teacher in Oregon who bought Grisham’s last two novels will also buy the third.
With that “knowledge,” Amazon says, why not get the book on its way?
Why, indeed?
Anyway, while he’s still marginally relevant, please let me say I hope Santa will (or did) visit this year. And I hope everything you wrote on your list (or thought about writing on your list) will be or was delivered in timely fashion.
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