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What MSU's Friday loss to LSU means

 

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Well, I hate to break this to you, but first, this means LSU is your outright SEC West champions. MSU has now lost its chance at a partial division championship. 

 

What MSU fans are really paying attention to now is the seeding aspect as it looks forward to the SEC Tournament. MSU is still in contention to grab the 4 seed and a first-round bye, but only under this circumstance: beating LSU Saturday and Arkansas losing to Texas A&M. (The two play a rubber match Saturday.) In any other scenario, MSU is eliminated from contention for the 4 seed and will start SEC Tournament play on Tuesday as opposed to Wednesday. 

 

There is one scenario in which MSU drops to the 6 seed. If MSU loses to LSU Saturday and Auburn beats Ole Miss, which would complete a sweep of the Rebels, the seeds will go 4 Arkansas, 5 Auburn and 6 MSU. In that scenario, MSU and Auburn would be tied at 17-13 in conference play, with the tiebreaker being Auburn's series win in Starkville. There's another scenario where that tiebreaker benefits MSU: in the event of a MSU loss and a Texas A&M win over Arkansas. Those two would then be tied at 17-13 and MSU would get the 5 seed on the tiebreak of MSU's series win in College Station. 

 

Now, for a quick note on who MSU will play in the first round of the SEC Tournament. 

 

At least there's no drama on who will get into the tournament, with Alabama and Tennessee already mathematically eliminated. 

 

MSU as the 4 seed: It would obviously play the winner of the 5 vs. 12 game, which would be Arkansas vs. the winner of Saturday's Georgia vs. South Carolina game. 

 

MSU as the 5 seed: It will be either Georgia or South Carolina getting the 12 seed and facing MSU. Georgia is now within a game of South Carolina after winning the first two games of their series against one another Thursday and Friday. If Georgia wins Saturday, South Carolina will be the 12 seed; if South Carolina wins, Georgia will be the 12. 

 

MSU as the 6 seed: Georgia beating South Carolina Saturday makes this pretty easy, making South Carolina the 12 seed and Georgia the 11, meaning MSU would face off with Georgia. A South Carolina win puts the Gamecocks at 13-17 in conference, where they could end the day tied with either Missouri (after a hypothetical loss to Tennessee) or Ole Miss (after a hypothetical loss to Auburn). South Carolina lost both series against Missouri and Auburn, so in the event of a two-way tie with either team, South Carolina would be the 11 seed facing 6 MSU. The three-way tie scenario is way too hairy to get into at the moment, since it would get into win-loss record against common opponents starting with top seeds, so we need the dust to settle there.

 

 

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